“Diversity and independence are important because the best collective decisions are the product of disagreement and contest, not consensus or compromise.” ― James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds

Galton has a theory

Bachelor Nation is geared up for  Fantasy Suite week. The date package will take place in Peru . Overnights without cameras are included as we see our contestants get the chance to enhance their connection with Ari and vice versa. 

We know one of the ladies will get sent home. The remaining two set up a showdown for the final rose. Ari maintains the final rose will result in an engagement and marriage. Bachelor Nation however has seen this movie before and harbors doubts.

 

Kendall trying a last stand

In fact, I have been pondering the wisdom of crowds while we see Ari wade thru the swamp of indecision.

 

Sir Francis Galton

The “Wisdom of Crowds” theory was advanced by Francis Galton, a polymath who happened to be related to our favorite naturalist Charles Darwin ( a half cousin) . This guy Galton  was remarkable. He was an English Victorian, statistician, polymath, sociologist, psychologist, anthropologist, eugenicist, tropical explorer, inventor geographer, meteorologist, and geneticist. He would certainly seem to have more going for him than Ari excepting ,of course, that Galton is dead at the present time.

Anyway, our hero, Galton was surprised that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged. The average was closer than the estimates of most crowd members. Galton's thesis is that a diverse collection of independently deciding individuals is likely to make certain types of decisions and predictions better than individuals or even experts.  I wonder if the crowd can do better than Ari.  

While watching Ari dance nimbly thru his “dates” I was thinking that Kendall is going home. But Kendall sure seems to be a far more engaging personality than either Becca or Lauren. Lauren has been very successful in hiding any personality she might have.

Kendall introduces a Ari to taxidermy 

However, Bachelor Nation witnesses Ari light up around Lauren making her the top seed for the final rose.

 

 Lauren holds back 

  

At this point, I think the crowd (Bachelor Nation)  should get involved and make the choice for Ari.  Anyone watching the show feels the producers should bring out a defibrillator to spark some life in Lauren . And Becca lives in Minnesota  which is in Minnesota. I am cold just thinking about it.  

Becca is in it to win it 

But we are not summoned to vote spawning a new motto for the revolution-
“No Selection without Representation.”    And Kendall goes home.

Bye Kendall

Anyway, team Kendall can openly root for Kendall to be the next bachelorette. May I suggest her twin Kylie “help out “ and  go one some group dates to help Kendall cull the herd. Why aren’t the producers calling me for ideas?

Anyway we are down to two final contestants. Ari has told both ladies he loves them. Upon hearing this profession of love from Ari  I suspect each lady felt special and relaxed a bit about being “the one”. Not so fast …..

The strategy  has a downside. The eventual  last one standing will be burdened by a gnawing sense that Ari is not totally committed . But hey this is the Bachelor not some couple in Brunswick, Maine.

It seems here that Ari find the adrenalin is flowing when he is with Lauren. None of us can know what he feels when he is with each lady . The crowd may prefer one girl over another. But what matters is who Ari prefers. After all, none of us would have wanted “the crowd” to pick our partners.

Watching this season it seems to me , Ari prefers Lauren.

But we shall see  after all our favorite philosopher Yogi Berra cautions  "Predictions are very tough ,especially if they are about the future."