"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

Nick proposes to Vanessa

Many of us regard sports as folklore. What captures our imagination is not simply the winning and losing. We love the stories. We embrace the stories of perseverance. We respect the stories of sheer will. We admire the stories of hard work. We cry at the stories of heartbreak. We are in wonder at the stories of miracles. We relish stories of triumph and tragedy. And finally, we root endlessly for the stories of comebacks.

This season of the Bachelor has been presented as a sporting event by the producers who try to convey Nick’s “journey for love” as a miraculous comeback.

The producers portray Nick as if he were an Olympic caliber swimmer who twice placed third by the narrowest of margins in the Olympic swimming trials. He endured the devastation of those disappointments and missed competing in the Olympics. But as the bachelor ,he was getting one final chance to qualify. We would be hard pressed not to root hard for such a swimmer who would have had to dedicate himself to hard work for years to get his final chance. However, Nick is not a swimmer making a comeback after two near misses at Olympic glory despite the producers shaping this as a comeback story. He is just another guy chatting up chicks-just on TV.  ( By the way, speaking of near misses- why do they refer to planes that come close to each other as "near misses" -- aren't they  supposed to miss? - they are really "near hits" but that sounds harsh I suppose ) 

As we approach Nick making a decision on which of the two candidates will get the final rose, we hear repeatedly that Nick is afraid. But, it is not as if the guy is living in Syria dodging bombs and bad guys. He is not even on Jerry Springer evading  fists from tattooed guys . He proclaims that reaching the final rose ceremony twice as a candidate for the final rose of the Bachelorette with both times being tossed aside for an alternate choice by the bachelorettes Andi and Kaitlyn, has left him very fearful. However, if he were devastated to the degree the show is implying he probably expects an “attaboy” for getting out of bed each day. In fairness, getting tossed aside twice on national TV has to be a bit of a blow to one’s ego, but he agreed to be the Bachelor knowing the game. This time though, he wields the hammer while the ladies are obliged to confess how much they love him and want to spend the rest of their life with Nick while awaiting his selection of the "winner".  

Bachelor Nation is gathered around to find out if Nick is going to find love and I ponder the how the bachelor has spawned watching the show in groups. I imagine groups of woman  (and some men such as your faithful correspondent ) all over the country gathering to watch the Bachelor. I  realize group memberships – families, neighborhoods, cities, and nations are powerful components of identity. It seems natural to band in a group. It is as if our genes wire us for such allegiances. Maybe this bonding is some sort of adaption aspect of our evolution but I am a bit baffled to figure out how being a part of Bachelor Nation can help us flourish- so my guess is that it help us exercise our judgement with regard to the mate selection process. Plus, it is fun to make decisions for somebody else. It most resembles going to a ball game with friends or family. 

Besides , it sure is easy for people to makes a decision as to which lady candidate is right for Nick. We all think we know plenty about the mate selection process to make a good decision for our boy. Of course, we really know very little about Nick or the candidates but that surely does not stop us from making a choice.  I would offer that most of Bachelor Nation is making the call  for Team Raven or Team Vanessa on what they “feel” based on the snippets the producers choose to show us. When we see or hear actions that confirm our pre-existing beliefs while giving less weight to alternative possibilities, we exhibit a confirmation bias that tilts us to a conclusion that may be in error.  Nick will not be the first guy (or girl) to pick a winner and two weeks later ask himself what have I done???

     

Ok, now that we have established our superior mate selection skills, we sit and await Nick running through some final activities with the contestants prior to pulling the trigger. Over time , we have learned that the first candidate escorted to the location of the final rose ceremony is toast. Nick will stick a fork in her -she's done. Total and highlights...

Raven arrives first and as Raven is about to be shown the door Nick channels Pastor Tim
(the weasel from The Americans) in an effort to be gentle. I am less surprised about Raven going home than I was that Pastor Tim did not have "an accident" after Paige mentioned Mom and Dad are spies.

Philip pondering whacking Pastor Tim

No one will confuse Nick with Philip

Thanks for dropping by Raven … see you in Bachelor in Paradise this summer.

Bye Raven

Up next is Vanessa. She smiles inwardly as she realizes she is the last one standing.  She is already thinking this rose might help her land that shampoo commercial.   

    

Vanessa

Nick greets Vanessa with a smile and offers a nice speech about love and how his heart is all in and so on.  Summer ( our dog) is barking at Nick as Vanessa takes this in stride while Bachelor Nation members  alternate between “Awwww this is so sweet” and “ I give this two months -tops”. 

 As Nick pulls out the engagement ring I am wondering will Vanessa sell the ring next week? How long do they need to “be a couple” to keep the ring ? If the producers are smart,  I suspect they will establish a long timeline.  

 What can i get for this ring?

At this point I suggest that endings are really disguised as beginnings. The show has ended and Bachelor Nation awaits the confetti . But no longer will the cameras watch Nick's every move nor Vanessa’s ( to her chagrin) . Having cameras on you all day has to modify your behavior so retreating to the “real world” will be an adjustment.  So, do you think Vanessa and Nick have a chance to go forward and live a long happy life together ?  Any ideas?

We read now of algorithms to help handle anything and even the match.com advertisements tout their algorithms/ models  to help match candidates. But a model is just a model and no model works all of the time.

A terrific financial book When Genius Failed told the story about some smart guys at Long Term Capital who constructed models to manage portfolios. Their models told them to expect one thing but the market behaved differently - a couple billion dollars later the market offered substantial evidence their models  were wrong- at least this time. The managers wanted to have the world believe it was the models fault. Yeah sure it was ... 

My favorite philosopher Yogi Berra opined “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”  You all know I am baseball guy ,and we have seen extraordinary progress in baseball to use mathematical models and measurements to evaluate players and price assets ( also known as players).  But, even the most die- hard “Moneyball” guys know you can throw out the models in the playoffs simply because the sample size is too small and “it’s a crapshoot”. So if models and math are not the answer to help in the mate selection process … what is?
















The answer is simple : Intelligence and common sense will take players in the mate selection process a long way. And a thunderbolt and a little luck helps!  But we should not expect to see those intelligence and common sense in the Bachelor - it is a TV show after all. 

We understand the Bachelor as a show we watch and feel together. We share the experience and it is a lot of fun to compare notes with other members of Bachelor Nation. Even a couple of my baseball friends enjoy weighing in. This show is an experience much like watching a baseball game with friends . A leisurely pursuit and lots of laughs . Good Luck to Nick and Vanessa -even as I fall in the camp it is more likely aliens will visit Earth to help out humanity than it is likely Nick and Vanessa thrive.   

Thank you for taking The Bachelor journey with me.  - On to the baseball season !